While Wall Street braces for a half point interest rate hike on Wednesday, Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer sees the ingredients for a sharp market bounce.
However, it’s unrelated to a fundamental change in economic and market risks. So, investors may want to resist going all in.
“We are going to get an oversold bounce. Sentiment and my tactical indicators are about as bad as they get,” the firm’s chief market strategist told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
According to Dwyer, the rally should materialize this summer. He expects the S&P 500 to jump at least 5%. Right now, the index is 13% below its all-time high hit on Jan. 4.
‘What’s done the worst could bounce’
In preparation for a summer boost, Dwyer believes investors could start nibbling on the year’s laggards. He speculates technology, financials and consumer discretionary are positioned to grab the biggest upside.
“What’s done the worst could bounce,” he noted.
But Dwyer warns the gains will be temporary.
Even though he’s not in the recession camp right now, he predicts aggressive Federal Reserve tightening paired with a decelerating economy this fall will contribute to fresh market swings.
On “Fast Money” in late March, Dwyer warned investors the “Fed is in a box.” He still calls it a problem, especially as money availability dwindles and inflation persists.
“How we go into the end of the year is going to depend on what the Fed does,” Dwyer said.